2027 Election: “Why North Will Back Atiku-Obi Ticket,” Top Political Analyst Explains
- A top political analyst, Dare Glintstone Akinniyi, predicted the fate of former vice president Atiku Abubakar if he eventually decides to challenge President Bola Tinubu in 2027
- In an exclusive interview with Legit.ng, Akinniyi explained what will happen if Atiku picks Peter Obi as his running mate in the next general elections
- Akinniyi also gave a breakdown of the potential voting pattern in the northern states and disclosed what would happen if Tinubu contests under the ruling APC in 2027
Legit.ng journalist Esther Odili has over two years of experience covering political parties and movements.
Dare Glintstone Akinniyi, spokesperson for the New Democratic Frontiers (NDF), has revealed that 19 northern states will work in favour of former vice president Atiku Abubakar in the 2027 general elections.
Source: Facebook
North will back Atiku-Obi ticket - Analyst
According to Akinniyi, although Atiku secured the second position in the 2023 presidential elections, the 2027 election numbers will be divided due to his choice of running mate and the political party.
Legit.ng reported that in June 2025, Atiku Abubakar recently dumped the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and joined forces with other major opposition leaders, including Labour Party’s Peter Obi, and former Kaduna governor Nasir El-Rufai, to form a coalition under the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
The alliance is expected to challenge the ruling party in the 2027 general elections.
However, Peter Obi urged the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to zone its 2027 presidential ticket to the south to promote unity and fairness.
Speaking exclusively with Legit.ng on Wednesday, August 20, Dare Glintstone Akinniyi revealed that the north will back Atiku because he is the candidate they are certain can challenge president Tinubu in 2027.
Buttressing his point, Akinniyi noted that the ruling All Progressives Congress has failed to fulfill their campaign promises hence the tide will swing in favour of Atiku if he decides to pick Labour Party's Peter Obi as his running mate.
"The 2023 presidential election numbers will be divided into bits for different reasons - political party, presidential candidate and choice of the running mate.
"For Atiku Abubakar, I think he is the candidate to beat this time, as it has always been. He is a northerner and the most popular politician right now from the North and across the six (6) geo-political zones. He may not pull the numbers as a result of the new political party but with a running mate like Peter Obi, they will both get the winning numbers.
"Nigerians are tired of the APC and the incumbent government and they will like to try the opposition. It is clear that APC won't return in 2027, and Atiku Abubakar will muster the needed winning votes in 2027.
"When you look at the voting pattern for Atiku Abubakar, you will understand that he has his traditional voters who will flow with his ambition regardless of the platform. No doubt, he will lose some numbers because of the PDP but he will get more voters with a popular politician as a running mate."
Source: Facebook
19 northern states will favour Atiku - Analyst
Continuing, Dare Glintstone Akinniyi, maintained that Atiku will secure a smooth election victory if he decide to contest under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) but the case is not the same if President Bola Tinubu under the APC in 2027.
Explaining further, Akinniyi, a former chieftain of the PDP, explained why 19 northern states will back Atiku and Peter Obi instead of Tinubu, and gave a breakdown of the voting pattern expected in 2027.
Akinniyi stated:
"As it stands, the northern states will be the swing states. In 2023, President Tinubu got more votes from the north-west — the largest voting geo-political grouping in the country — than from the south-west, his home zone.
"In the north, Tinubu led in the north-west and north-central. Atiku won four of the seven north-western states — Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi and Sokoto. Tinubu beat Atiku in the north-west, scoring 2,652,824 votes compared to his opponent’s 2,197,824. The entire south-west gave Tinubu 2,542,979, second to the north-west.
"Tinubu picked four of the six north-central states — Kwara, Kogi, Niger and Benue. Atiku won the north-east, his home zone, claiming all but Borno, even leading PDP to victory in Yobe for what should be the first time since 1999. Tinubu won only Borno, where his running mate hails from.
"Except for Kano, where NNPP's Rabiu Kwankwaso has his major voting strength - the 19 northern states will all swing in favour of Atiku Abubakar [regardless of his party], however, he needs to kick off his campaign early to get the grassroots aware of his new party.
"Atiku Abubakar has a clear pathway to victory under the ADC than Tinubu under the APC. The daily hardship faced by Nigerians is weighing down their morale and we may have the repeat of 2015, when the incumbent lost a re-election bid."
Read more about the 2027 election here:
- Atiku coalition: “Why a southern candidate cannot defeat Tinubu,” Analyst speaks ahead of 2027
- Atiku vs Peter Obi: Top analyst predicts who will secure ADC’s presidential ticket ahead of 2027
- 2027 election: Atiku told not to step aside for southern candidate, reason emerges
“ADC will take over power," Atiku declares
Meanwhile, Legit.ng reported that Atiku Abubakar assured that the newly adopted coalition party, the African Democratic Congress, will challenge President Tinubu in the 2027 election.
Atiku stated this recently and maintained that Nigeria "can never be a one-party state," hence the need for the ADC to unseat Tinubu and the ruling APC in 2027.
Proofreading by Funmilayo Aremu, copy editor at Legit.ng.
Source: Legit.ng
