Fuel Prices to Increase as Brent Crude Rises Above $70 Per Barrel
- The price of crude oil has risen again, defying analysts' expectations due to increased output by OPEC+ members
- Reports say OPEC+ has added 500,000 barrels daily to member countries’ quotas, raising concerns of a glut
- However, oil prices defied OPEC’s move and inched up slightly on Monday, July 14, 2025, raising concerns about an imminent petrol price increase
Legit.ng’s Pascal Oparada has reported on tech, energy, stocks, investment and the economy for over a decade.
Global benchmark crude prices rose this week, with Brent crossing $70 per barrel, raising fresh concerns about an imminent spike in fuel prices across import-dependent markets like Nigeria.
As of the morning of Monday, July 14, 2025, Brent crude sold at $71.00, up 0.91%, while WTI increased to $69.14, a 1.01% increase.
Source: Getty Images
Crude prices rise above $70 per barrel
Murban Crude also rose slightly to $72.21, representing 0.92, and natural gas increased to $3.463 per MMBtu.
According to data from Oilprice.com, the rise defied expectations after OPEC announced a rise in production, adding over 500,000 barrels daily to global supply.
However, tightening inventories and strong seasonal demand continue to sustain upward price trends.
OPEC increases output for member countries
Contrary to expectations, the global crude oil market remains strong, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) reporting that OECD crude inventories are still 97 million barrels less than last year's levels, while US diesel stocks remain 23% below the five-year seasonal average.
According to Petroelumpriceng, energy experts say that the market has absorbed the new OPEC+ supply without hassles, showing strong demand fundamentals and undersupply in the downstream segment, especially in diesel.
The report disclosed that the refinery cuts in 2024 caused diesel shortages across the US.
Experts at Sparta Commodities and BOK Financials say refineries may struggle to meet demand, especially with cold weather and logistical constraints remaining into the third quarter.
Experts predict a new landing cost for petrol
Analysts predict that with Brent Crude above $70, Nigeria may face high landing costs as it still depends on imports of petrol, diesel, and cooking gas, given the volatility of the exchange rate.
However, findings show that crude oil prices alone do not determine the local fuel price.
In the past year, Nigeria’s depot prices have reacted to global price changes.
In August 2023, Brent crude hovered around $84 per barrel, yet petrol prices dropped to N617 to N580 per litre, caused by the spot market discount and FX support.
Source: Getty Images
In February last year, Brent sold for about $84 per barrel, while depot prices still dropped by N25-N30 per litre, supported by offshore inflows.
Crude oil price movements in Nigeria
In June 2025, Brent crude dropped from $74.87 to $73.14, yet depot prices rose by N40 to N60 per barrel, as marketers speculated on Dangote’s PFI issuance.
A prior report by Legit.ng disclosed that the mega refinery raised its petrol ex-depot prices to N880 per litre despite a two per cent drop in Brent price.
The move led to increased prices at the pumps across Lagos and Warri depots.
With the latest increase in crude prices, market watchers say Nigerians may experience another hike in petroleum product prices, especially petrol.
Again, Dangote Refinery slashes petrol prices
Legit.ng earlier reported that in a move that rattled depot owners late Tuesday, July 8, 2025, the 650,000 bpd-capacity Dangote Refinery has slashed petrol prices to N820 per litre, down from N840, which it released on June 30, 2025.
This comes as depot owners have consistently undercut the mega refinery with lower price cuts to gain a market advantage.
The latest price adjustment by the refinery is the lowest rate since March 14, 2025, when petrol sold at N815 per litre at the facility.
Source: Legit.ng
